Forecasting football match results - A study on modeling principles and efficiency of fixed-odds betting markets in football

Objectives of the study This thesis is about the statistical forecasting of (European) football match results. More specifically, the purpose of this thesis is to assess how a statistical forecast model that uses only publicly available information fares against public market odds in forecasting football match outcomes. Academic background and methodology The forecasting of sports results has been widely researched because it provides important insight into how betting markets operate. Football and betting associated with it has been the most popular topic because of the global popularity of the sport and because the betting markets associated with it capture large annual turnover. In spite of research by numerous authors, there is still room for improvement in terms of developing more accurate forecast models. Therefore, we contribute to existing literature by developing a regression model for forecasting football results. We assess the model's performance with forecast accuracy measurements and betting simulations. The principal idea of the model is based on the ELO rating system which assigns relative performance ratings to teams. Findings and conclusions In terms of accuracy measurements and betting simulations, the model developed in this thesis is able to match or surpass the results of existing statistical models of similar build. The measurements also indicate that the model can on average match the accuracy of the forecasts implied by the publicly quoted odds. However, the model is unable to generate positive betting returns. Together these results indicate that the publicly quoted odds for extensively betted football matches are slightly inefficient, but that this inefficiency does not make statistical betting algorithms consistently profitable. The results also indicate that historical league match results are the most important components of a statistical football forecast model, and that supplementing these components with other data yields only modest improvements to forecast accuracy

Incidence and trends of low back pain hospitalisation during military service – An analysis of 387,070 Finnish young males

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is evidence that low back pain (LBP) during young adulthood and military service predicts LBP later in life. The purpose of this study was to investigate the incidence and trends of LBP hospitalisation among Finnish military conscripts.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>All male conscripts performing their compulsory military service during 1990–2002 were included in the study population. Altogether 387,070 military conscripts were followed throughout their six-to-twelve-month service period. Data on LBP hospitalisations were obtained from the National Hospital Discharge Register.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Altogether 7,240 LBP hospitalisations were identified among 5,061 (1.3%) male conscripts during the study period. The event-based incidence of LBP hospitalisation was 27.0 (95% confidence interval (CI): 25.7–28.2). In most cases, the diagnosis was unspecified LBP (<it>n </it>= 5,141, 71%) followed by lumbar disc disorders (<it>n </it>= 2,069, 29%). Hospitalisation incidence due to unspecified LBP was 19.1 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI: 18.3 to 20.4), and 7.8 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI: 6.7 to 8.3) due to lumbar disc disorders. The incidence of unspecified LBP remained unaltered, while hospitalisation due to lumbar disc disorders declined from 1993 onwards.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although conscripts accepted into military training pass physician-performed examinations as healthy, young adults, LBP hospitalisation causes significant morbidity during military service.</p

Common Variant Burden Contributes to the Familial Aggregation of Migraine in 1,589 Families

Complex traits, including migraine, often aggregate in families, but the underlying genetic architecture behind this is not well understood. The aggregation could be explained by rare, penetrant variants that segregate according to Mendelian inheritance or by the sufficient polygenic accumulation of common variants, each with an individually small effect, or a combination of the two hypotheses. In 8,319 individuals across 1,589 migraine families, we calculated migraine polygenic risk scores (PRS) and found a significantly higher common variant burden in familial cases (n = 5,317, OR = 1.76, 95% CI = 1.71-1.81, p = 1.7 × 10-109) compared to population cases from the FINRISK cohort (n = 1,101, OR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.25-1.38, p = 7.2 × 10-17). The PRS explained 1.6% of the phenotypic variance in the population cases and 3.5% in the familial cases (including 2.9% for migraine without aura, 5.5% for migraine with typical aura, and 8.2% for hemiplegic migraine). The results demonstrate a significant contribution of common polygenic variation to the familial aggregation of migraine

Utarerakenteen vaikutus lypsyrobotin kapasiteettiin : Esikäsittely ja kiinnitys

Automaattilypsytiloilla ylimääräistä työtä aiheutuu lehmistä, joita on haettava lypsylle sekä tarvittaessa myös avustettava siinä, edellisen lypsyn epäonnistumisen seurauksena. Epäonnistunut lypsy voi johtua ongelmista esikäsittelyssä, kiinnityksessä tai varsinaisessa lypsyssä. Ongelmat voivat johtua yhdestä tai useammasta eri tekijästä, joita ovat muun muassa laiteviat ja eläimen luonne sekä utarerakenne. Nämä ongelmat myös kuluttavat lypsyrobotin kapasiteettia. Opinnäytetyön tarkoituksena oli selvittää utarerakenteen vaikutusta lypsyrobotin kapasiteettiin esikäsittelyn ja kiinnityksen osalta. Tutkimuksen aineisto kerättiin neljältä Etelä-Pohjanmaalla sijaitsevalta lypsyrobottitilalta. Mukana oli kolme De-Lavalin lypsyrobottia ja neljä Lelyn lypsyrobottia. Tutkimus toteutettiin arvostelemalla eläimet lineaarisen rakennearvostelun mukaan ja keräämällä lypsyroboteilta Excel-pohjaiset raportit, jotka sisälsivät rakennearvostelua edeltävän seitsemän vuorokauden ajalta lypsytapahtumatiedot. Tutkimusaineisto perustui eläinten sen hetkisiin fenotyyppiarvoihin. Rakennearvosteluaineisto sekä raporttien tiedot käsiteltiin Microsoft Excel-taulukkolaskentaohjelman avulla. Tutkimuksessa todettiin utarerakenneominaisuuksien vaikuttavan joko suoraan tai välillisesti esikäsittelyn ja kiinnityksen onnistumiseen sekä niihin kuluvaan aikaan. Vedinten sijainnin ja niiden pituuden sekä utareen tasapainon havaittiin vaikeuttavan merkittävimmin lypsyrobotin toimintaa. Esikäsittelyyn ja kiinnitykseen kuluvaa aikaa voidaan vähentää utarerakennetta parantamalla, jolloin robotin kapasiteetti tulee tehokkaammin hyödynnetyksi. Utarerakenneominaisuuksiin tulee kiinnittää huomiota tilan eläinainesta kehitettäessä automaattilypsyyn sopivaksi.Cows which have to be fetched to the automatic milking system when a milking failure occurs causes extra work on automatic milking system farms. A milking failure can be due to, for example, the inability of the automatic milking system to locate the target teat for cleaning or attaching the teat cup. For instance, undesirable udder conformation creates difficulties for teat cup attachment. Milking failures reduce the capacity of an automatic milking system. The objective of this study was to find out how udder conformation effects the milking capacity of an automatic milking system concentrating on pre-stimulation and teat cup attachment time. For the study four farms were visited. Udder conformations were scored by means of linear animal models. The data that deals with the seven day milking information was collected from the automatic milking systems in Excel form. These two data were used to create graphs to illustrate the results. Two different types of automatic milking systems were investigated, Lely and DeLaval. In the study it was stated that the udder conformation traits affected either directly or indirectly the success of the pre-stimulation and teat cup attachment. Teat placement, teat length and udder balance were the most frequent causes of attachment failures. It is possible to decrease the pre-stimulation and teat cup at-tachment time if the udder conformation is improved. This makes it possible to increase the capacity of automatic milking systems. The udder conformation must be taken into consideration when breeding animals suitable for automatic milking systems

Maanalaisten pystykuilujen toteutustavat

Tässä opinnäytetyössä on tarkoitus perehtyä lähinnä maanalaisissa tiloissa sijaitseviin maanalaisten pystykuilujen rakentamiseen louhinnan jälkeen. Tällaisia pystykuiluja ovat esimerkiksi hissi- ja ilmanvaihtokuilut ja ne ovat yleensä muutamia kymmeniä metrejä syviä. Näihin kuiluihin rakennettavien rakenteiden valintaan on syytä perehtyä huolellisesti ja suunnittelussa tulee huomioida toteutuksen helppous, kustannukset ja lopputuloksen laatu. Lisäksi tulee pohtia, miten työmiehet käytännössä pääsevät työskentelemään paikoin korkeallakin sijaitseviin kohteisiin työturvallisuutta laiminlyömättä. Opinnäytetyön tilaajana toimi Lemminkäinen Infra Oy ja työtä on tarkoitus käyttää apuna suunniteltaessa Oulun keskustan alle tulevan Kivisydän-pysäköintiluolaston pystykuilujen toteutustapoja. Kuilurakenteiden tarkastelu painottui yleisimmin käytettyihin menetelmiin eli paikalla-valu-, elementti-, valuharkko- ja teräsrakenteisiin. Lisäksi työssä vertailtiin rakentamisen mahdollistavaa kehätelinettä ja mastonostinta. Kustannusvertailun avulla molemmista kokonaisuuksista löydettiin edullisin vaihtoehto. Tämä vertailu toteutettiin kustannusten ja rakennusaikojen suhdetta vertailemalla. Lisäksi kaikkien menetelmien työturvallisuuteen kiinnitettiin huomiota. Työn lopussa saatiin tulos, jossa valuharkkorakenne osoittautui edullisimmaksi vaihtoehdoksi mastonostimelta rakennettuna. Valuharkkorakenteen valitsemiseen johti edullisin hinta ja lyhyt rakennusaika. Mastonostimen valintaan vaikuttivat edullinen hinta, nopeat pystytys- ja purkamisajat sekä hyvä työergonomia. Saatujen tulosten pohjalta työn tekijä suosittelee edellä mainittujen menetelmien käyt-tämistä Oulun Kivisydän-pysäköintiluolastossa, vaikka näihin tarkasteltuihin kuiluihin saadut tulokset eivät välttämättä toimi yleispätevästi kaikissa kuiluissa.In this thesis, writer orientates mainly in vertical underground shafts construction after mining. These vertical shafts are located in underground caverns and they are for example elevator- and ventilation shafts. Shafts are usually couple dozens of meters deep. Engineer must think careful about the coming structures to these shafts and planning must take into account of work’s ease, expenses and final quality. Also, man must think how the workers can practically reach the work site situated mostly high above without risking occupational safety. The order of this thesis was Lemminkäinen Infra Oy and this thesis was made to help the planning of the vertical underground shafts in coming Kivisydän-parking facility situated in Oulu, Finland. The examination of shaft structures concentrated in generally used methods, which are cast-in-place reinforced concrete structure, precast concrete element, concrete block structure and steel structure. Thesis also includes comparing about methods that make the construct possible between modular scaffolding system and single mast climbing work platform. With the help of cost comparison, writer found the most reasonable choices from the ensembles. This comparison made by comparing the ratio of expenses and construction times. Thesis also took notice in occupational safety of every examined methods. At the end of this thesis, the result was that the most reasonable structure is concrete block structure built from the single mast climbing work platform. Reasons for choosing this concrete block structure were the lowest construct price and short construction time. Reasons for choosing mast climbing work platform were low rent price, fast installation- and disassembling time and worker friendly work ergonomics. With the help of gained results, the writer of this thesis recommends using of these methods chosen above in vertical underground shafts construction in Kivisydän-parking facility, although the results in these examined shafts aren’t necessary valid in every different shafts

Contemporary urban skateboarding practices

Skateboarding has been theorized as a subculture to whom urban spaces has provided the origins of the sport as well as authentic place for their performances. By skateboarding on the streets practitioners have encountered opposition from the hegemonic culture due their creative use of the space which challenges the normative values and rhythms of urban space. The purpose of this study is to study skateboarders' place consumption, identity construction through physical performances and power relations with society in urban context revealing their lived experiences. The objective is to grasp on the everyday life of skateboarders to understand better how skateboarders see themselves in the world and experience the places they take over. This study's research approach is social constructivism and the methodology is Practice Theory. As a method semi-structured interviews were conducted. The aim of the chosen methodology is to provide thick descriptions of skateboarders' experiences from their everyday life. Previous literature defines urban skateboarding as resistant to the mainstream values by arguing that they want to ideologically distinct themselves from the mainstream society. This research studies urban skateboarding practices through practice theory so the focus is on the actual 'doings' (Reckwitz, 2002) suggesting that the subcultural view on urban skateboarders seems not to exemplify their day-to-day activities and identities. Instead of aiming their energy towards the architecture in order to break things and purposely behave inappropriately to show their presence this study shows that skateboarding practices are seeking to use urban space in agreeable way and so that they could live together with other groups in a conforming way rather than going against the normative values of the mainstream society

Kosteudenhallinta rakennustyömaalla : Sorsantien Palvelukeskus ja Senioritalo

Tämän opinnäytetyön tarkoituksena oli tutkia kosteudenhallintaa rakennustyömaalla. Esimerkkikohteena oli Sorsantien Palvelukeskus ja Senioritalo uudisrakennustyömaa. Opinnäytetyön alussa on kerrottu tutkimuksen teoriaa, johon itse tutkimus on pohjautunut. Teoria käsittelee kosteuden syntymistä ja siirtymistä työmaalla, erilaisia kosteudenhallintamenetelmiä, betonin kosteusmittauksia sekä ongelmia ja hyötyjä kosteudenhallinnassa. Teoria-aineistoa olen kerännyt pääosin alan kirjallisuudesta, internetistä ja RT-korteista. Työssä on tutkittu esimerkkikohteen rakennusaikaista kosteudenhallintaa, joka rajattiin yhdessä työn toimeksiantajan kanssa kosteudenhallintasuunnitelman käyttöön työmaalla, suojaustoimenpiteisiin, rakenteiden kuivumiseen ja kosteusmittausten osalta päällystettävyysmittauksiin. Tietoa tutkittaviin asioihin olen saanut perehtymällä työmaan asiakirjoihin ja haastattelemalla työmaan vastaavaa mestaria sekä kohteen valvojaa. Tutkimustulosten perusteella saatiin tärkeää tietoa, miten ennakkosuunnittelu on tärkeässä osassa onnistunutta kosteudenhallintaa. Myös suunnitelmien saumaton noudattaminen on avain kosteudenhallinnan onnistumiseen. Näin vältyttäisiin toimenpiteiltä, jotka vaativat valmiin rakenteen purkamista, kuivattamista ja rakentamista uudestaan, mikä tuo odottamattomia kustannuksia ja saattaa johtaa aikatauluviivästyksiin.The purpose of this thesis was to investigate the moisture control at the construction site. The case example was the Sorsantien Palvelukeskus and Senioritalo construction sites. The thesis starts by describing research theory, to which the research is based on. Material was collected from the literature, the Internet and RT-card files. In this thesis the moisture control at the construction period was investigated. This topic was restricted with the client to the study of how moisture control plan, weather protections, drying of structures and measurements of structure moistures are implemented at the site. Information about the research was gained by studying the documents of the construction site and interviewing the general superintendent and the construction supervisor. The research results gave important information about the importance of advance planning with in successful moisture control. The key of the successful moisture control is also strict adherence to planning. In this way it is possible to avoid the actions which require removal of finished structure, drying of structures and rebuilding it again. These things may cause unexpected costs and delays in the schedule

Implementation of Backend Infrastructure for Social Mobile Game

The goal of this thesis was to create a scalable backend infrastructure for a social mobile game, Last Planets, deployed in the Microsoft Azure cloud environment. The main part of the study consists of three sections: the first one describes the needs and considerations for communication middleware, the second one goes through the design principles and typical components in a game server architecture, and the third one explains how the aforementioned theory is put in practice in Last Planets. As a result of the research, Photon, a networking technology developed by ExitGames, has been chosen to perform the role of a networking middleware, for reasons such as having a comprehensive set of features, good documentation and support, ease of use, and compatibility with all major mobile platforms. Furthermore, server architecture-designed to be scalable, responsive, fault tolerant, and well monitored-has been implemented on top of Photon. The knowledge gathered in this study can be used as a guideline or reference when developing a backend infrastructure for a social game. Building a backend infrastructure can be a complicated task-depending on the requirements for the particular game-and this thesis was written to present a solid foundation to build upon. However, some major areas such as security and issues related to running game logic on the server-side have been purposefully left out of the study